" Most online retailers currently in business have been on the market for three years. So they have gained experience. " This is how Bill Jones, senior director of public services at the research firm Keynote, describes the present situation of e-commerce. After a major crisis in the e-commerce market, those companies that survived have managed to solve their difficulties with stocks management and logistics.

The 11th September events, moreover, have produced unexpected effects on the e-commerce market. Recent studies show that while consumers are not fearful of shopping in malls, the security checks at airports and railway stations have prompted a number among them to send their gifts by ordinary post. According to the predictions by Bizrate.com that analyzes the transactions of 2000 e-commerce sites, online sales for the period of November 19th to December 16th have increased by 30% compared with those for the year 2000. The same trend holds for the retailer Kmart whose sales of its online site Bluelight.com soared by 45% during the 15th December week end--that is, two times higher than the retailer's forecasts.

But what is the present state of the e-commerce market in the Unites States? The " E-commerce: B2C Report ", a survey of the results of more than a hundred research centers provides us with some valuable insights:

  • In 2000, the number of American web surfers was 116.5 millions and will reach 181.5 million by 2005.

  • The number of American online buyers will double, from 64.1 million in 2000 to 130 million in 2005.

  • The Giga Information Group data reveal that online sales will be more numerous for well-known companies in 2001, as was the case in 2000.
  • Alexa Research shows that 33 out of the 50 " greatest " B2C e-commerce sites have solid warehouses whereas only 17 sites are merely virtual.


  • This last observation can also apply to the banking sector where " mixed banks " turn out to be more successful than " virtual " ones. The number of " single visits " of mixed bank sites rose from 6.4 million in July 2000 to 13.4 million in July 2001. For the same period, virtual bank sites fell by 8.1% in their visits. Among mixed banks, Chase Bank -- followed by Wells Fargo and Citibank -- was the most frequently used with an increase in " single visits " of 281.1% between July 2000 and July 2001. But what are the users' motives of these e-banking services? Customer services, proximity to ATM machines and to subsidiaries as well as recommendations from friends or relatives represent valuable assets for clients.

    As for the e-advertising market, the General Media Reporting has published some mediocre results: between January and June 2001 the invested total amount reached 1.5 billion $ -- a 10% decrease compared with the same period last year. Obviously, this result should be analyzed in light of the general slowdown of this field. Advertising expenses increased until the last (three months of 2000), before stopping dramatically in the beginning of 2001. E-commerce sites have invested the most into e advertising, up to 299.4 M$, followed by media sites (261.44M$) and e-banking sites (177.88 M$).

    According to a survey by Merrill Lynch, the number of companies has declined on the e-advertising market. In 2000, eight companies " produced " 77% of the total turn over, and this percentage will go from 85% to 90% in 2002. With 34% market shares in 2000, AOL Time Warner is the first announcer and 45% in 2001 and 52% in 2002 of market shares. But given the current economic situation, what do analysts foresee for the e-advertising market? A rather bright future, according to the Jupiter Media Metrix: " Online advertising is a strong incentive for consumers; it boosts the number of visits and sales. And even though budget reductions slow down growth of the market, e advertising is and will remain a stimulus to development. "

    Despite the September 11th attacks, the future of e advertising is not threatened. In fact, a recent study by AC Nielsen shows that since the beginning of June 2001, the index of consumer confidence has risen to 115. With this growing confidence in the Web, strengthened by the terrorist threats, the e-commerce market has bright days ahead.


     
    December 2001    Is the future of e-commerce threatened?  
     
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